Mathematical Model for Predicting the Growth Probability of Staphylococcus aureus in Combinations of NaCl and NaNO2 under Aerobic or Evacuated Storage Conditions

The objective of this study was to describe the growth patterns of Staphylococcus aureus in combinations of NaCl and NaNO2, using a probabilistic model. A mixture of S. aureus strains (NCCP10826, ATCC13565, ATCC14458, ATCC23235, and ATCC27664) was inoculated into nutrient broth plus NaCl (0, 0.25, 0.5, 0.75, 1, 1.25, 1.5, and 1.75%) and NaNO2 (0, 15, 30, 45, 60, 75, 90, 105, and 120 ppm). The samples were then incubated at 4, 7, 10, 12 and 15℃ for up to 60 d under aerobic or vacuum conditions. Growth responses [growth (1) or no growth (0)] were then determined every 24 h by turbidity, and analyzed to select significant parameters (p<0.05) by a stepwise selection method, resulting in a probabilistic model. The developed models were then validated with observed growth responses. S. aureus growth was observed only under aerobic storage at 10-15℃. At 10-15℃, NaCl and NaNO2 did not inhibit S. aureus growth at less than 1.25% NaCl. Concentration dependency was observed for NaCl at more than 1.25%, but not for NaNO2. The concordance percentage between observed and predicted growth data was approximately 93.86%. This result indicates that S. aureus growth can be inhibited in vacuum packaging and even aerobic storage below 10℃. Furthermore, NaNO2 does not effectively inhibit S. aureus growth.